So Theresa May is going to be Prime Minister soon. We live in a representative democracy, not a direct one, and the Conservative party was elected by an electorate who (could have) had the full knowledge that Cameron wasn’t going to contest the 2020 election. May is part of his top team, and represents continuity. There is no need for an election, and she has a job to do.
I suspect Brexit is going to happen, but May will be more likely to manage to remain in the single market. The worst elements of the Brexit camp have now been sidelined. If the immigration obsessives can be thrown under the bus in favour of “passporting for the banks”, so be it. After all, immigration wasn’t on the ballot. “Democracy” you see…
If there is to be a bright economic future for the UK, the single market is probably part of it. Quite what benefits this brings compared to being in the EU is beyond me; the faith in “free trade agreements” to be part of this are likely to be overdone. Within the single market, we will still pay in, and obey all those rules that so “hamper” the UK (which was until a couple of weeks ago was… um.. the best performing developed economy, and no brexiteers could point to unnecessary rules). What the UK still exports are unlikely to be particularly hurt by small tariffs, and FTAs rarely cover services, which the UK is good at.
If we can remain in the Single Market via some sort of bespoke deal, with some token bone thrown on free movement, then that might be a compromise which will end the issue that has poisoned politics for so long, for good. The crucial negotiations to withdraw from the EU are going to be handled by grown-ups. rather than a tryo of questionable competence.
My guess – a framework for Brexit will be negotiated with partners after the French and German elections in 2017, with article 50 to be triggered at some point within the parliament. However, I see no reason why those of us who want to remain, should stop campaigning for it to not be. Democracy, after all, is a process, not an event. One man, one vote, once is the “democracy” favoured by dictators. If we can get a new deal with the EU, perhaps one with a significant changes to the relationship, there might be grounds to stay in the EU.
I suspect the one risk is that this process will not be quick enough for the “bastards” (John Major’s description…), who will want article 50 triggered more or less immediately and who will sniff betrayal at every step. The “Remainiacs” may well get stronger as time passes, and of course the bastards have a point that the longer before article 50 is triggered, the less likely it will be. If you don’t like this, UKIP is over there, folks. You know what to do. Don’t let the door hit your arse on the way out.
http://bracken.uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/logo-2.png00Malcolm Brackenhttp://bracken.uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/logo-2.pngMalcolm Bracken2016-07-11 11:45:002017-07-21 01:42:59So We Have a New PM. Yes, this is Democracy.