Well, The Wish Has Been Granted

So, the polls were rightish, and the Turkeys did vote for Christmas. A sledgehammer has been taken to the post-cold-war security architecture, and Vladimir Putin is happy.
What Next?
Well. There is much that can happen. Article 50 will be invoked by the next Prime Minister, but still needs to be ratified by Parliament. So it is possible a General Election could get in the way. A new parliament will not necessarily be bound by the referendum result.
In the looming crisis, I reflect on this: The Tory right couldn’t help but pick at the scab for 40 years. All they needed to do was, as Cameron asked, stop “banging on about Europe”, and they coukd have been in government for 20 years. But the Tory right’s mania about Europe couldn’t be assuaged. And in giving in to it, it seems likely they will shatter not just the EU but the UK. Scotland is Angry. The Dutch, Danes, Swedes, Greeks and others will want a referendum too. Which is why I don’t expect the EU to play nice.
Welcome to the fun new Zero-sum world. It’s probably now in the UK’s interest to see the European project fall. No-one will be better off as a result.
Let’s negoitate a deal with the EU. Put it to another vote (so we know what we’re voting for this time). Obviously the Be.Leavers who believe so fevervently in “democracy” will understand, then invoke article 50.
Or, an EEA-style agreement with free market access and free movement satisfies the demand to leave the European Union, with less damage. The people who thought the referendum was about immigration will be disappointed, but I really don’t care what such people think.
There are no upsides to what has happened. I hope the UK survives. I hope there isn’t a knock on populust surge around the democratic world. I hope Vladimir Putin doesn’t get tempted to try to break NATO too. I hope the recession isn’t too bad, but it’s probably just that it falls hardest on the areas that voted for it. Which it will. The one part of the the UK that will be fine no matter what is the city. The government will protect its interests, and being “offshore” may even help it.
As for the Tory party? It has got what it has long wanted. There will be a recession. The reputation for economic competence, hard won by Cameron and Osborne, has been sacrificed on the European altar. Again. Be careful what you wish for.

11 replies
  1. Gilman Grundy
    Gilman Grundy says:

    EEA membership (as a bare minimum) is what we have to fight for now. Since the Leave camp did not make any detailed plan as to what they wanted to do post-Brexit to replace our EU membership, instead just making undeliverable promises to all and sundry, there is nothing stopping us pursuing this.

  2. Anonymous
    Anonymous says:

    Hey guys don't be so hard on the Dude. His arguments for Remain were the strongest that I read tbh – and nearly swayed me.
    But come on Dude it can't be beyond the wit of man to come up with some perfectly agreeable arrangements for security/defence, etc.
    My tuppence – dreadful miscalc by Cameron. Should have offered on the ballot a 3rd option of EFTA membership and that would have won comfortably.
    To be clear I voted Leave without the slightest expectation of a win – so I just wanted to register a vote for a better deal – so I take full responsibility as a voter for any unravelling.
    Remain didn't put a positive case forward – instead they sneered.

  3. Smoking Scot
    Smoking Scot says:

    Heck all you needed to do was flog GBP and buy USD.

    Then use the profits to buy pots of seriously undervalued equites.

    Do not tell me you didn't.

    Oh and continue to short the Euro.

  4. Jabba the Cat
    Jabba the Cat says:

    The PM merely needs to invoke Crown prerogative to trigger art. 50 notification, cabinet, let alone HOC, vote not required. This penny will drop sooner rather than later and much wailing and gnashing of teeth will follow…


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